Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has been projected as the favourite candidate to win the forthcoming New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearership race.
This is according to a delegate-based research conducted by the Outcomes International Ghana and Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives, UK.
The study looked into other socio-demographic factors that are likely to influence the outcome of the NPP’s presidential candidate election.
It analysed how ethnicity, geography, and religion affect the chances of the viable candidates, as well as the basis on which delegates assess the suitability of a candidate.
The study was done in all 16 regions of the country using an estimated 197,000 NPP polling station executives (PSEs) as the target population.
PSEs form the most important constituency as they make up more than 90% of the total delegates who will elect the NPP presidential candidate. Participants were selected using multistage probability proportional to size sampling (PPS) with implicit stratification.
“Data was obtained mainly through computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) technology between 15th November 2022 and 15th December 2022. Based on 95%
confidence level and 2% margin of error a sample size of 6000 PSEs was used”
“However, 5641 PSEs were successfully interviewed (response rate of 94%) from all 96
constituencies. Greater Accra region had the highest number of PSEs interviewed with 1142 PSEs followed by the Ashanti region with 869 PSEs corresponding to 20.2% and 15.4% respectively. More than half of PSE’s who participated in the survey were Akan (54% [n=3056 PSEs]), and 46% (n=2585 PSEs) were non-Akan. In terms of religious distribution, 78% of the PSEs were Christian whilst 20.6% were Muslim,” the report said.
NPP Presidential Primaries_Survey Summary of Polling Station
