An April survey conducted by Global Info Analytics has revealed that John Dramani Mahama, the presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), holds a significant lead over his closest rival, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).

The poll, which sampled nearly 6,120 voters with a margin of error of 1.6%, shows that 55% of voters who cast their ballots in the 2020 election would vote for John Mahama if the election were held today. Dr Bawumia trails behind with 35.9%, while Alan Kwadjo Kyerematen (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) garnered 6.4% and 1.5% respectively.

The analysis also reveals that John Mahama has successfully maintained his coalition from the 2020 election, with 98% of NDC voters who voted for him in 2020 still supporting him. Additionally, the NDC flagbearer has gained significant votes from those who voted for Nana Addo in 2020, with 7% of NPP voters now backing him.

On the other hand, Dr Bawumia has lost over a third of Nana Addo’s 2020 coalition, with 7% of NPP voters now supporting John Mahama and 7% backing AKK. This suggests a fractured NPP base, which could impact Dr Bawumia’s chances in the upcoming election.

The poll’s findings indicate that John Mahama’s campaign has made significant strides in appealing to floating voters, who will play a crucial role in determining the next president of Ghana.

Read summary of survey below:

According to the April 2024 national which sample nearly 6120 voters, with a margin of error of 1.6%, 55.0% of voters who voted in the 2020 election would vote for John Dramani Mahama (JDM), while 35.9% will vote for Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB), 6.4% will vote for Alan Kwadjo Kyeremanten (AKK) and 1.5% will vote for Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB). Analysis of 2020 voters’ voting intention has a margin of error of 1.9%.

This analysis looks at voters who voted for Nana Addo, Mahama and other candidates in 2020 elections and how they intend to vote in 2024 by party affiliations. This analysis provides better insight in understanding which political party’s base is fractured and who appears to get the backing of floating voters, a crucial  bloc who will decide who eventually becomes Ghana’s next president.

The data shows that 7% of NPP voters who voted for Nana in 2020 will now vote for JDM, 7% will vote for Alan while 85% will vote for DMB. For those who are NDC and voted for Nana in 2020, 84% are returning to vote for JDM and 14% will still vote for NPP candidate, DMB. For floating voters who voted for Nana Addo in 2020, 43% will vote for JDM, 30% DMB, 16% will vote for Alan and 8% will vote for Nana Kwame Bediako.

For John Mahama, the data shows that 60% of NPP voters who voted for him in 2020 will still for him in 2024, 34% will return to vote for DMB and 6% will now vote for Alan. For those from NDC who voted for JDM in 2020, 98% will still vote for him, 1% will vote for DMB and 0.5% will vote for Alan. For floating voters who voted for JDM in 2020, 85% will still vote for him, 5% will now vote for DMB, 6% will vote for Alan, 1% for GUM, and 2% for Nana Kwame Bediako.

In conclusion, Mahama has kept his votes largely and held the coalition that gave him 47% in 2020 intact as well as taking significant votes that went for Nana Addo’s according to the poll.  DMB, however, has lost over a third of Nana Addo’s 2020 coalition not just to his main challenger, JDM but also to AKK and NKB.

By: Bright Yao Dzakah | Metrotvonline.com | Ghana