The reported disclosure by the beleagured Nigerien junta, that former President Bazoum would be the first fatality, in the event of an ECOWAS military operation to dislodge them, is no secret.

Indeed, the coupists appear stoic in their defiance, despite the constitutional illegality of their armed takeover. Thus, it can be argued that ECOWAS is somewhat justified, in seeking a restoration of constitutional order by other means.

However, this raises a few questions: In the event of a successful overthrow of the junta, which new political figure would ECOWAS install as President? And would this new figure enjoy the support of the masses, who have had enough of the stifling French presence in their country?

Moreover, having defeated the Nigerien army, which forces would ECOWAS then count on, to prosecute the war against the jihadists? The French? Wagner? The Americans? Or the thousands of enraged Nigerien civilians, bereaved by terrorist activity over the years?

With the military logistics and personnel of West African countries already stretched thin, the utility of any further military intervention by ECOWAS remains doubtful.

Already, commitments to previous agreements like the Accra Initiative, have been hindered by the lack of funds (and political will) by individual member states.

While the preservation of democracy is definitely a very noble, and indeed, vital cause, one wonders how scant ECOWAS forces would deal with military resistance from the multiple fronts of Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Wagner, as well as the Nigeriens themselves.

It must be noted, that while previous military interventions in Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Guinea Bissau, and the Gambia were all successful, the dynamics are slightly different in the current Sahelian situation.

And with many voices across the region urging restraint, one hopes ECOWAS will not remain tone-deaf to the unpopularity of the prospect of another war in Africa.

But even more importantly, ECOWAS forces could get bogged down in a long, draining war, which lasts for ages.

History is replete with examples of military missions which dragged on and on, costing more and more, far beyond the calculations of military chiefs.

As we speak, Russia is bogged down in a prolonged military invasion of Ukraine, which has not quite gone according to plan.

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And before that, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq were cautionary tales warning the prudent, that nothing is ever straightforward in war, especially when the underdog has nothing to lose.

With the stoic, unbending posture on both sides, the forecast does not look good for West Africa. But enough with the sabre-rattling. In my view, Ghana, for example, can be the adult in the room, ushering all protagonists to the negotiating table, by any means necessary.

While the complex geopolitics of this crisis demands meticulous navigation by mediators, a non-military solution is certainly possible.

And this non-military option is an urgent imperative on behalf of all the people in the entire sub-region. The alternative: a war without any winners, is not an option. The world is watching.

Source: Chris.Y. Pitt